I talk to founders every day who are waiting for CPMs to go back to 2019 levels.
Spoiler Alert: They never will.
Advertising costs only go up over time. If your entire business model relies on being profitable on the first purchase, you are on a ticking clock.
The New Math of Ecommerce
The winners in 2025 aren't the ones with the lowest CAC (Customer Acquisition Cost). They are the ones who can afford the highest CAC because their LTV (Lifetime Value) is massive.
Shift Your Mindset:
Old Way: Make profit on day 1.
New Way: Break even on day 1 (acquisition); Make profit on days 30, 60, and 90 (retention).
The 60-Day Payback Protocol
You need a system to extract the second sale within 60 days of the first.
1. The "Unboxing" Flow:
Don't just send a receipt. Send a "How to get the most out of your order" email sequence. Happy customers buy again. Confused customers refund.
2. The Cross-Sell Window:
Analyze your data. What do people usually buy second? If 40% of people who buy Shampoo eventually buy Conditioner, don't wait for them to decide. Send a targeted offer for Conditioner 14 days post-purchase.
3. The VIP Escalation:
Identify your "Whales" (top 5% of spenders). Move them to a separate email list. Give them early access, SMS support, and exclusive bundles.
Your Action Step:
Calculate your 60-day LTV. If it’s not at least 30% higher than your Day 1 AOV, stop optimizing Facebook ads and start optimizing your email flows.
P.S. Retention is the only defense against rising ad costs.
